The 2023 General Election in Nigeria represents a few firsts since its return to democracy in 1999. It is the first time a former army general is not on the ballot for the main political parties. Additionally, it is the first time since 1979 that the presidential race has a third force contender who is seen as a serious challenger in the elections. This means that, more than ever, the existing models for predicting the direction of elections in the country are unlikely to work in the 2023 elections.
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